2020 Oscars Predictions and Picks

By: Mitch Wiley

2019 was an interesting year for cinema. The first 9 months featured a couple of breakout hits and a lot of disappointments and duds. The early months provided a second Jordan Peele social commentary hit with Us, the summer blockbuster season provided an effective ending to Marvel’s story arc with Avengers: Endgame, and Quentin Tarantino brought a crowd-pleasing Once Upon a Time in Hollywood to a bleak summer slate. Aside from those three and a couple films falling through the cracks, 2019 looked like one of the worst movie years in recent memory. The final three months provided hit after hit, both with audiences and critics. The loaded list of Oscar nominations reflect that.

Here, I’ll look at 21 of the 24 Oscar categories (if I’m being honest, I know little to nothing about the 3 “shorts” categories), giving a pick for Will Win, Should Win (of the nominees), and Shoulda Been—that is, who I believe should have been nominated and wasn’t.

Best Picture

Will Win: 1917

Should Win: Parasite

Shoulda Been: A Hidden Life; Knives Out; Us

This year’s Best Picture race has been unique with a short voting season—usually, the Oscars are at the end of February, rather than the beginning. A few short months ago, we seemed destined for a showdown between Tarantino and Scorsese, but the late surges of 1917 and Parasite make this an interesting narrative of the past versus the future. Parasite represents the future, it’s a foreign film that bridges genres, something the Academy has rarely gone for. In fact, no foreign-language film has ever won Best Picture; Roma came the closest last year and likely lost due to anti-Netflix bias. 1917 is a feel-good war film, something the Academy traditionally loves. Both are good films, but surely Parasite would be the more fun and deserved victory. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is my personal favorite of these films, but I really enjoyed them all. I just don’t want something like Joker or Jojo Rabbit to win when it was such a great year at the top. I’ll be happy with Parasite, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Little Women, or The Irishman—the latter two are unlikely.

When thinking about who will win, usually one turns to the various Guild awards (PGA, SAG, DGA, etc.) as the voters are often Academy voters. 1917 won the PGA and DGA, while Parasite won the SAG. There is a precedent for an indie movie shocking a Hollywood-friendly frontrunner. In 2016, Moonlight did not win any of the guilds with La La Land sweeping all major awards. The preferential ballot voting system tends to favor the film that is the majority of people’s second or third choice, rather than the one that is first or near the end. If that’s the case, Parasite has a major chance.

If I had a vote for the ten Best Picture nominees: The Farewell, A Hidden Life, The Irishman, Knives Out, Little Women, Marriage Story, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Parasite, Uncut Gems, Us. I’ll also throw in Waves as an honorable mention because I really love that film but it got shut out of the awards season. Seek it out if you can.

If I were in the Academy and gave my preferential ballot for this year’s nominees… The AcadeMitch Ballot:

1. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Parasite

3. Little Women

4. The Irishman

5. Marriage Story

6. 1917

7. Ford v Ferrari

8. Jojo Rabbit

9. Joker

Best Director

Will Win: Sam Mendes, 1917

Should Win: Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite

Shoulda Been: Greta Gerwig, Little Women

In a loaded director’s race, it’s largely the same story here—1917 versus Parasite. One of the worst snubs of the year is no Greta Gerwig in favor of Joker’s Todd Phillips. Scorsese and Tarantino are also high-profile names with their late-career films. Phillips would be a shocking surprise but don’t count on it. It will be Mendes or Bong, the latter of which I’m hoping will win. Mendes has already been a hit with the Academy when his 1999 film American Beauty swept Best Picture and Best Director.

AcadeMitch Ballot:

1. Bong Joon-Ho, Parasite

2. Greta Gerwig, Little Women

3. Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Martin Scorsese, The Irishman

5. Rian Johnson, Knives Out

Best Actress

Will Win: Renee Zellweger, Judy

Should Win: Scarlett Johansson, Marriage Story

Shoulda Been: Lupita Nyong’o, Us

It’s unfortunate that this race seemed to be over back in October. Zellweger has been the overwhelming frontrunner for months with nobody appearing to threaten her inevitable second Oscar victory. Judy as a film is mediocre, which is unfortunate because Zellweger carries it on her back. A recognizable portrayal of a historical figure tends to win the acting categories, and Zellweger’s acting has plenty of bravura without being an outright impersonation of Judy Garland. The Academy’s horror bias is out in full force this year with Nyong’o’s head-scratching snub. If it were up to me, she would win. I’m left rooting for Johansson, who went toe-to-toe with Adam Driver in the best-acted film of the year.

AcadeMitch Ballot:

1. Lupita Nyong’o, Us

2. Aisling Franciosi, The Nightingale

3. Scarlett Johannson, Marriage Story

4. Florence Pugh, Midsommar

5. Noémie Merlant, Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Best Actor

Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix, Joker

Should Win: Adam Driver, Marriage Story

Shoulda Been: Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems

This is a classic example of a “career award” from the Academy as opposed to the actual best performance of the year. Phoenix has had a great career of portraying odd and broken characters, culminating in what is sure to become an iconic performance of the decade. Nothing against the performance, but we have seen this kind of acting from Phoenix before in the likes of The Master and You Were Never Really There. The character of The Joker is the new Macbeth, something ever actor wants to try their hand at. For a much more nuanced and interesting performance, I would gladly point to Adam Driver in Marriage Story. Of course, the Academy thinks Driver will have his chance as his career is just taking off. Adam Sandler’s snub here is probably because he’s Adam Sandler, and that’s just unfortunate.

AcadeMitch Ballot:

1. Adam Driver, Marriage Story

2. Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems

3. Leonardo DiCaprio, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Antonio Banderas, Pain and Glory

5. Robert de Niro, The Irishman

Best Supporting Actress

Will Win: Laura Dern, Marriage Story

Should Win: Florence Pugh, Little Women

Shoulda Been: Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell

Snubs galore in this category as Jennifer Lopez had a great turn in Hustlers and Zhao Shuzhen made us all cry as the grandma in The Farewell. This award was also wrapped up awhile ago with the presumed frontrunner, Laura Dern. I think she’s fine in Marriage Story but does not have even close to the level of acting chops as Florence Pugh, who probably “won” the year from an acting standpoint. She brought newfound depth and layers to the Amy March character that we’ve never seen before.

AcadeMitch Ballot:

1. Zhao Shuzhen, The Farewell

2. Florence Pugh, Little Women

3. Jennifer Lopez, Hustlers

4. Julia Fox, Uncut Gems

5. Adèle Haenel, Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Best Supporting Actor

Will Win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Should Win: Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Shoulda Been: Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse

If someone else wins, I’ll be horrified and shocked. Brad Pitt has accomplished the rare feat of transitioning from movie star to great film actor. He is likable, intimidating, and funny as the wonderful and hunky Cliff Booth in his second collaboration with Tarantino. It’s a reach to say Willem Dafoe is a snub, but I did really appreciate him in the fever dream that is The Lighthouse. Two other performances that I’m happy got some love here are Joe Pesci and Al Pacino in The Irishman, specifically Pesci. Pesci’s performance is intentionally subdued and melancholic especially for his career with Scorsese.

AcadeMitch Ballot:

1. Brad Pitt, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

2. Joe Pesci, The Irishman

3. Al Pacino, The Irishman

4. Willem Dafoe, The Lighthouse

5. Song Kang-ho, Parasite

Best Adapted Screenplay

Will Win: Taika Waititi, Jojo Rabbit

Should Win: Greta Gerwig, Little Women

Shoulda Been: N/A

Greta Gerwig did everything you want an Adapted film to do—she modernized it with her own twists while doing the original work justice. It’s a hard thing to do and her personal fingerprints are all over the film. She should absolutely win ahead of another excellent script in The Irishman. Jojo Rabbit has the momentum as it won the Writers’ Guild Award and BAFTAs Award, which makes it likely for Taika to walk away with the win. It seems like a tossup between the two, and I keep on going back and forth. I’ll go with my heart as I’m cheering hard for Gerwig. I’m sure the Academy is keenly aware of their much-publicized snub of Gerwig and I’m anticipating many will attempt to right that wrong here. If not, that will be a major missed opportunity to recognize one of the best working writer/director.

*EDIT/UPDATE* I’m now changing my pick to Jojo Rabbit and Taika Waititi. I think they have too much momentum and I think the Academy will go for something more original rather than the umpteenth time for the Louisa May Alcott story. And the makeup win for Gerwig is neutralized because Taika was not nominated for Best Director either. It will be interesting to see how much of a spoiler Jojo Rabbit plays on Sunday night.

AcadeMitch Ballot:

1. Little Women

2. The Irishman

3. Jojo Rabbit

4. A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

5. Joker

Best Original Screenplay

Will Win: Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Should Win: Rian Johnson, Knives Out

Shoulda Been: Jordan Peele, Us

This is another loaded category with several deserving winners. Tarantino has won twice before in this category and this may be his consolation prize for going 0-2 in Picture and Director. Parasite is one that could easily win and nobody would be upset with that. I’m half tempted to slot it in for both “Will Win” and “Should Win.” However, I have lots of love for Rian Johnson and Knives Out, which had funny and impactful dialogue and twists. I would have loved to see Peele get another nomination after winning in this category in 2017. Waves is a script that nails high school and family tragedy. And who am I kidding, I won’t be upset in the slightest for another Tarantino win.

AcadeMitch Ballot:

1. Knives Out

2. Parasite

3. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

4. Us

5. Waves

Best Documentary Feature

Will Win: American Factory

Should Win: For Sama

Shoulda Been: Apollo 11

Each year, the Academy seems to do something unpredictable and odd in this category. Last year was not nominating the Fred Rogers documentary Won’t You Be My Neighbor? and this year is not nominating what I believe may have won if nominated, Apollo 11. American Factory seems to have everything going for it, including Barack and Michelle Obama’s involvement. The Netflix documentary itself was merely okay in comparison to For Sama (check it out on YouTube or Amazon Prime) and Honeyland.

Best Animated Feature

Will Win: Toy Story 4

Should Win: Toy Story 4

Shoulda Been: N/A

It was a down year for animated features. I really enjoyed Netflix’s I Lost My Body and was happy to see it nominated. I could see that or Netflix’s other film, Klaus, winning. Klaus has won a string of awards recently, including the BAFTAs. However, the two Netflix films may cancel each other out in favor of another impressive Pixar film. People are sleeping on the poignancy of Toy Story 4. It’s also one of Pixar’s best looking animation.

Best International Film

Will Win: Parasite

Should Win: Parasite

Shoulda Been: Portrait of a Lady on Fire

Put your house on Parasite winning. There is absolutely no way anything else wins. Pain and Glory is my favorite of Pedro Almodovar’s illustrious career and got Antonio Banderas a well-earned nod for his quiet soulful performance. If Parasite shockingly loses, it would be to Pain and Glory. Each country submits its own film for this award so it’s not on the Academy that France’s Portrait of a Lady on Fire wasn’t nominated. That’s a luscious and rich romantic period drama headed to theaters in a couple weeks.

Best Film Editing

Will Win: Ford v Ferrari

Should Win: Ford v Ferrari

Shoulda Been: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

This is an intriguing category. I’ve read many experts say Parasite has the most impressive editing. There is not a single shot in it that isn’t supposed to be there. Bong is on another level. The Irishman is 3.5 hours long, but has good editing from the legendary editor Thelma Schoonmaker. This could be a career award for her. 1917’s editing together or short scenes to make it look like one long shot is impressive, but it was not nominated. Ford v Ferrari’s editing is the most in-your-face and loudest, something the Academy has traditionally liked. I really liked all of Ford v Ferrari’s technical filmmaking techniques so I’ll be rooting for that or Parasite.

Best Cinematography

Will Win: 1917

Should Win: 1917

Shoulda Been: Parasite

No contest here—the Academy is a sucker for long shots. You can call it a gimmick or video game-like if you want, but there is no denying the audacious and stunning shots by Roger Deakins in 1917. Deakins has had a long career of wonderful cinematography, most notably in the films of the Coen Brothers. He didn’t win for a long time until Blade Runner 2049 in 2017. He deserves this award, but I also love the cinematography in Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. Parasite’s cinematography was more subtle and less showy, likely why it wasn’t nominated.

Best Production Design

Will Win: 1917

Should Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Shoulda Been: N/A

This is another category that is loaded. Once Upon a Time in Hollywood and Parasite had incredible sets. Hollywood recreated 1969 Los Angeles using a variety of techniques like miniatures, while Parasite constructed a unique and fascinating modern house juxtaposed to a dilapidated one. I will be cheering for both of them, but expect 1917 to take away the award (this is becoming a theme for this year’s Oscars). 1917’s trenches, tunnels, and battlefields are really well-done and detailed.

Best Visual Effects

Will Win: Avengers: Endgame

Should Win: 1917

Shoulda Been: Ford v Ferrari

It’s going to be frustrating when Avengers: Endgame wins because there is nothing new here. Yes, it’s impressive given that most things happen on a sound stage with a green screen, but Endgame and Star Wars’ CGI-heavy films force the viewer to always be aware they are watching special effects. Films like 1917 and Ford v Ferrari use visual effects and CGI but you don’t know they’re there. It’s tough because that’s actually the superior visual effects.

Best Original Score

Will Win: Joker

Should Win: 1917

Shoulda Been: Us; A Hidden Life

1917’s score did a lot of things for me—it ratcheted up the intensity, it helped immerse me in the journey, and it made me want to run through a wall in its finale. Joker’s theme is pulling a lot of weight too, and it is not a bad score by any means. It certainly contributes to the mood and downward spiral of Arthur Fleck. There are worse Best Original Score winners out there. I loved Us and A Hidden Life wish the Academy would have given them more love.

Best Sound Editing

Will Win: 1917

Should Win: Ford v Ferrari

Shoulda Been: Rocketman

The annual tradition in which everyone Googles what the difference is between Sound Editing and Sound Mixing. To oversimplify, Sound Editing happens as the film is being filmed, and Sound Mixing occurs in post-production. It’s a real tossup here between 1917 and Ford v Ferrari for both categories. It may be one getting both, but I think they may split. I’ll go conservative and pick 1917 for both. 1917’s gunfire, cannons, explosions, etc. garnered its nominations, while Ford v Ferrari’s ferocious racing scenes were equally as impressive. I lean cheering for Ford v Ferrari in both categories because it’s something we haven’t seen done this well in a racing film. To me, it’s now the definitive car movie.

Best Sound Mixing

Will Win: 1917

Should Win: Ford v Ferrari

Shoulda Been: Rocketman

See above description under Sound Editing.

It really is a shame Rocketman only got 1 nomination this year. It is vastly superior to last year’s Bohemian Rhapsody, which walked away with more awards than anyone else. Elton John’s music was brought to life in great ways.

Best Original Song

Will Win: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again,” Rocketman

Should Win: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again,” Rocketman

Shoulda Been: “Glasgow,” Wild Rose

This is where Rocketman will get its obligatory win. I liked Rocketman, although I’m a bit dubious of Elton John being a producer for his own biography. This is a pretty weak field for original songs. The real winner should be Jessie Buckley’s awesome singing in the soundtrack of Wild Rose, an under-the-radar hidden gem you can find currently on Hulu. If anyone else happens to win, it may be the song from Harriet or Parasite.

Best Costume Design

Will Win: Once Upon at Time in Hollywood

Should Win: Once Upon a Time in Hollywood

Shoulda Been: A Hidden Life

Little Women can easily win this. It’s essentially a toss-up between it and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. I think costume dramas from the 1700s and 1800s are easy to reward in this category, which is why I’m going with Hollywood, both with my head and my heart. Ultimately I’ll be happy with whoever wins, but it’s telling that I want to buy Cliff Booth’s t-shirt/Hawaiian shirt/60s mocassin boots outfit. That alone gives the edge to Hollywood.

Best Makeup/Hairstyling

Will Win: Bombshell

Should Win: Bombshell

Shoulda Been: Little Women

Little Women should be nominated based on Timothee Chalamet’s hair alone, let alone Saoirse Ronan’s. But the obvious choice here is Bomshell. I haven’t seen the film (nor do I have any interest to see it) but their ability to recreate Megyn Kelly via Charlize Theron is really really eery and impressive. It shouldn’t be a surprise that makeup and hairstyling goes to a story about the women of Fox News. :)